欢乐颂

How Zelensky is Losing His Halo, May Soon Outlive His Usefulness for West_我的网站

林中小屋

一 | 当今复杂的国际局势中，特别是在俄乌战争持续升级、各国军事力量不断增强的背景下，朝鲜向俄罗斯供应新一批战术导弹的消息无疑成为了全球关注的焦点。美国“军事观察”杂志8月21日的报道，进一步揭露了这一武器系统的核心——超重型KN-30导弹。 The Zelensky narrative used by western media "has palpably shifted" over the last few weeks, according to Steve Cortes, a US political consultant, market strategist and former Trump campaign adviser.,This shift particularly comes in relation to the latest CBS News report which alleged that "much of the billions of dollars of military aid that the US is sending to Ukraine doesn't make it to the front lines." Cortes also cites the New York Times' Thomas L. Friedman, who admitted earlier this month that "there is deep mistrust between the White House and President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine — considerably more than has been reported.",Concerns also appear to be simmering over Zelensky firing his prosecutor general and intelligence chief on July 18 without explanations. "I have still not seen any reporting that convincingly explains what that was all about," Friedman wrote. "It is as if we don’t want to look too closely under the hood in Kiev for fear of what corruption or antics we might see, when we have invested so much there.",Similarly, German newspaper Die Welt once again shed light on Zelensky's offshore network schemes on August 3, as exposed by the Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project (OCCRP) in October 2021. It also revealed Kiev's apparent role in cancelling a Ukrainian documentary "Offshore 95 – President Zelensky's Secret Deals" last year.,The press reports were also preceded by GOP Representative Victoria Spartz's push for more oversight of US aid to Kiev amid suspicions of corruption within the Zelensky cabinet.,RussiaUS Analyst: Time Has Come for American Politicians to Hold Kiev Responsible for Endemic Corruption23 July, 13:03 GMT,Zelensky & Kolomoisky,Accusations of corruption are threatening to strip the Ukrainian president of his heroic "halo." On July 20, investigative journalist and managing editor of CovertAction Magazine, Jeremy Kuzmarov, provided details of Zelensky's longstanding ties to Ukrainian oligarch Igor Kolomoisky.,Kolomoisky has been under FBI investigation for financial crimes, including money laundering, for the past few years. The Ukrainian oligarch is also known for funding and supporting notorious neo-Nazi and ultra-nationalist battalions including Azov*, Aidar, Donbas, Dnepr 1, and Dnepr 2, in 2014. According to Kuzmarov, these military units "were sometimes deployed as personal thug squads to protect Kolomoisky’s financial interests.",In January 2022, the US Department of Justice filed a civil forfeiture complaint alleging that Kolomoisky and his associate Gennadiy Bogolyubov, who owned Ukraine's PrivatBank, embezzled and defrauded the financial institution for $5.5 billion.,Judging from the Pandora Papers, Zelensky and his partners in his Kvartal 95 television production company founded a network of offshore companies in 2012 just as they started to cooperate with Kolomoisky's TV stations.,Four days after the release of Kuzmarov's exposé this year, reports emerged indicating that Zelensky had stripped Kolomoisky of his Ukrainian citizenship alongside another two Ukrainian oligarchs.,"I am not sure what is behind the decision to strip Kolomoisky of citizenship but it could be an attempt to improve Zelensky's public image and try and distance himself from his former backer because of the corruption scandals and legal problems Kolomoisky is facing," says Kuzmarov. "We see a similar thing in US politics, for example, when Barack Obama distanced himself from Tony Rezko, a highly corrupt backer of his in the state of Illinois (when Obama was a state senator) who was jailed for corruption.",According to the investigative journalist, "at this stage, Zelensky may feel he does not need Kolomoisky's support anymore especially given that he is being provided billions of dollars of weapons and aid from the US and West.","[Kolomoisky] has only become a liability with the indictments he faces in the US," the journalist continues.,In addition, Zelensky fired his long-time associate State Security Service (SBU) head Ivan Bakanov, who is now subject of an investigation. In October 2021, Bakanov was mentioned in the Pandora Papers as Zelensky's partner in the offshore network.,"It could all be related, yes, that Zelensky is trying to distance himself from his former close associates who are being set up to take the fall for the corruption that Zelensky is implicated in too," says Kuzmarov. "Zelensky may feel that he has powerful protectors in the 'international community'.",WorldBigwigs, Bucks & Biolabs: US Establishment Has a Lot of Skeletons in Ukraine's Closet, Analyst Says13 May, 12:00 GMT,Corruption Outside Ukraine,Meanwhile, the story of Ukrainian corruption appears to be bigger than Zelensky's apparent financial machinations and links to the oligarchy, according to Wall Street analyst Charles Ortel.,"For a blinkered mainstream press, Kolomoisky readily can be sold as a convenient scapegoat considering his deeply suspicious and repugnant history. That said, who are the true puppeteers inside Ukraine? Are they governments, billionaire investors or both?" asks Ortel. "Considering the many ways in which state-owned assets and aid ostensibly for Ukraine have already been plundered, the period from 1991 forward and more recently from 2004 and then 2014 forward may well be used for decades to demonstrate that there is no honor among thieves, and great danger for populations when political corruption is encouraged.",The Wall Street analyst alleges that Ukraine provided a certain financial bonanza for US dynastical families, including the Clintons and the Bidens, well before Zelensky came to power. As such, Ukrainian oligarch Victor Pinchuk, who is also the son-in-law of former Ukrainian President Leonid Kuchma, generously donated to the Clinton charity, prompting suspicions of a "pay-to-play" scheme.,Likewise, Republican lawmakers have long been looking into apparent influence peddling involving then-Vice President Joe Biden's son, Hunter, who sat on the board of Ukrainian gas firm Burisma and was reportedly paid a staggering $83,333 per month. According to Miranda Devine's book "Laptop from Hell," Burisma slashed Hunter's salary in half two months after his father ceased to be vice president.,© AP Photo / Sarahbeth ManeyFILE - Members of Congress give Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky a standing ovation before he speaks in a virtual address to Congress in the U.S. Capitol Visitors Center Congressional Auditorium in Washington, on Wednesday, March 16, 2022FILE - Members of Congress give Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky a standing ovation before he speaks in a virtual address to Congress in the U.S. Capitol Visitors Center Congressional Auditorium in Washington, on Wednesday, March 16, 2022© AP Photo / Sarahbeth Maney,Zelensky Not Indispensable for West,"With so many worries distracting voters in key nations, and given his status for a time as one-part Greta Thunberg scold and a second part Tony Fauci hero, Zelensky may believe he has secured a permanent 'White Hat' role, and that he never will be called to account for massive corruption to which he and many others seem connected," explained Ortel.,However, Zelensky shouldn't delude himself into believing that he is "indispensible" in the eyes of the western political establishment, according to the analyst. As such, Thomas L. Friedman's notion that the Biden administration and the Ukrainian president are not on the same page should come as a potential warning for Kiev’s man.,For his part, National Review's Jim Geraghty suggests that the NYT leak that the White House does not trust the Ukrainian president could mean two things.,"Possibility one is that the Biden administration just wants the Ukraine-Russia war to end, and Zelensky isn’t playing ball, so the administration is getting ready to leave Zelensky hanging out to dry," Geraghty wrote on August 2. "Possibility two is that the administration foresees the Ukraine-Russia war going badly, and is preparing to use Zelensky as a scapegoat.",In any event, the Biden administration appears to be laying the groundwork to argue, "We did everything we could to help the Ukrainians defend themselves, but in the end, they were too incompetent, too corrupt, and too beset by infighting," according to Geraghty.,"It is difficult to predict when Zelensky will outlive his usefulness and get cast aside but that day is coming, whether in retaliation by a vindictive erstwhile ally or in military action or otherwise," Ortel concludes.,*Azov Battalion is a terrorist group banned in Russia.。这款导弹因其搭载的2.5吨重的超重型弹头而被称为“全球最强”的近程常规战术导弹，令西方国家心生警惕，认为这将对现有军事平衡产生深远影响。

二 | 俄乌战争已经进入第几个年头，战火不仅没有减弱的迹象，反而愈演愈烈。在这个过程中，无论是前线战斗的士兵，还是高层决策者都已被迫适应并利用新的军事技术和战术。

三 | 随着冲突的升级，双方对于武器系统的依赖程度也在加大。在这样一个讲求“科技就是战斗力”的时代，谁掌握了先进的武器系统，谁就占据了战略主动权。

四 | 因此，KN-30导弹的出现，不仅是朝鲜在特定军事需求下的尝试，更是对正在进行的战争态势的一种微妙回应和干预。 KN-30导弹的设计初衷，是为了能够有效打击地下坚固目标。根据其战斗部的独特设计，该导弹的重量从500千克跃升至2.5吨，这一数据看似夸张，却有其存在的合理性。在相对短的射程内，增加战斗部的重量以提升打击威力，成为了一种可行的技术路线。相较于伊朗的霍拉姆沙赫尔-4，后者为了保证2000多千米的射程，其最大战斗部重量仅为1.5吨。

五 | 而KN-30则是在相对狭小的战场环境中，根据直接的作战需求进行创新，以便更好地适应战斗环境。然而，重型弹头的设计也意味着更高的技术挑战。随着导弹飞行过程中燃料的消耗，重心变化会显著影响其飞行姿态，因此如何保持精确的打击能力，是摆在设计师面前的一道难题。虽然研制出这样的导弹代表了一种技术成就，但同时也反映出各国在武器研发方面的差异化路径。就像朝鲜借此导弹对外展示其军事能力一样，俄罗斯可借此机会加强与朝鲜的军事合作，实现资源的互补。在俄乌冲突中，军事手段与外交策略往往交替进行。

六 | 朝鲜对俄罗斯的支持可以被视为一种战略同盟，而非单纯的物资交换。这种关系不仅基于当前地缘政治的需要，还受到历史因素的影响。通过对俄罗斯的军事支持，朝鲜不仅能获得必要的经济援助，还能够在国际事务中增加自身的话语权。与此同时，俄罗斯接收这种高威力的战术导弹并不意味着会立即将其用于乌克兰战场。实际情况往往比表面复杂，俄罗斯可能会选择在合适的时机、特定目标上突然使用KN-30，以达到出奇制胜的效果。正如历史所显示的那样，军事强国往往倾向于在关键时刻展现其压倒性的力量，同时也允许他们在战斗中获取更大的战略利益。

七 | 如果说在战场上使用KN-30导弹是一种战术选择，那么它后果的严重性将不可忽视。

八 | 2.5吨战斗部所造成的毁灭性打击，将对任何非军事目标带来巨大的伤害。

九 | 无论是军队指挥中心还是民用设施，一旦成为攻击对象，后果不堪设想。当我们讨论战术导弹的威力时，也需要反思战争本身带来的巨大人道主义危机。虽然朝鲜向俄罗斯提供武器显然是出于军事和政治的双重考虑，但这种支援是否能在长远上改善会让两国赢得的收益仍然值得怀疑。更多的武器并不足以解决根本问题，反而可能使战争的持续升级更加难以避免。随着KN-30导弹的投入使用，未来的乌克兰局势将如何演变值得深思。这不仅关乎俄罗斯的下一步军事策略，也涉及整个国际社会如何应对新的威胁。西方国家现有的制裁措施及其军事援助是否能在新的武器系统面前继续奏效？又或者，俄罗斯是否会采取更加大胆的行动？这些都是当前局势中的重要课题。因此，各国在面对复杂的安全局势时，应始终关注各类新兴军事技术的发展，并对可能引发的连锁反应进行深入评估。